Premium Macro & Market Note — July 8, 2025
We’re starting this week with a slight pullback after record highs in equities. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed Monday around 6,230, easing from last week’s all-time high near 6,279. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) also dipped to 22,685, down about 0.8% on the day. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading near $108,000, consolidating just below its all-time high, and goldsits at $3,334/oz, climbing steadily after a recent breakout. Nvidia (NVDA) closed at $158, just beneath its record high of $159.34.
The two macro drivers I’m watching this week are:
Rising bond yields — the 10Y hit 4.38%, highest in two weeks.
New tariff threats — with the White House proposing new trade barriers on Japan and South Korea.
Markets are still technically bullish, but fragile. Momentum is slowing, and geopolitical or policy surprises could swing sentiment quickly.
📈 Top investors read this – now you can too, for FREE!
🛑 Quick Reminder:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing here is financial advice. These trade setups reflect my personal opinions only — not recommendations. I’m sharing what I’m looking at, how I think about risk, and levels I’m watching.
You are 100% responsible for your own decisions. Always do your own research (DYOR) before taking any trade. If you lose money, that’s on you — not me.Technical Setups (1–3 Day Tactical Trades)
🔹 S&P 500 (SPX)
Current Price: 6,230
Setup: Strong uptrend, consolidating after recent breakout. RSI cooling from overbought; MACD flattening.
Support/Resistance: Support at 6,200 and 6,140. Resistance at 6,280 and 6,300.
Trade Setup:
Entry: 6,220
Stop: 6,140
Target: 6,300
Rationale: I’m watching for a buy-the-dip opportunity around 6,200–6,220. This level held Monday and aligns with the last breakout zone.
Invalidation: A daily close below 6,140 tells me bulls lost control — I’d cut any longs there.
🔹 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
Current Price: 22,685
Setup: Still leading, but showing slight bearish divergence. Consolidation forming under highs.
Support/Resistance: Support at 22,500 and 22,000. Resistance at 23,000 and 23,500.
Trade Setup:
Entry: 22,500
Stop: 22,250
Target: 22,950–23,000
Rationale: I want to buy weakness into 22,500 with a tight stop. If we break 23K cleanly, I’ll consider a breakout play.
Invalidation: Break below 22,000 invalidates any bullish bias.
🔹 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Current Price: $108,000
Setup: Bullish consolidation under $110K–$112K. RSI remains strong; minor divergence forming.
Support/Resistance: Support at $107K and $102K. Resistance at $110K and $112K.
Trade Setup:
Breakout Long:
Entry: $111,000
Stop: $107,000
Target: $115,000
Dip Buy:
Entry: $104,000
Stop: $99,000
Target: $112,000
Rationale: I’m waiting for either a breakout or a pullback to support. BTC moves fast — I want clear confirmation before entering.
Invalidation: A breakdown below $100K would flip me neutral.
🔹 Nvidia (NVDA)
Current Price: $158
Setup: Flagging just under highs. RSI cooling, MACD still bullish.
Support/Resistance: Support at $155 and $150. Resistance at $160 and $170.
Trade Setup:
Breakout Long:
Entry: $161
Stop: $155
Target: $170
Dip Buy:
Entry: $154
Stop: $149
Target: $160
Rationale: I’ll either chase a breakout above $160 or buy near the 20-day MA around $152–$155.
Invalidation: A break below $150 shifts this from a bullish to neutral chart.
🔹 Gold (XAU/USD)
Current Price: $3,334
Setup: Uptrend resuming after a bull flag breakout. RSI rising again, MACD turning higher.
Support/Resistance: Support at $3,305 and $3,275. Resistance at $3,375 and $3,415.
Trade Setup:
Entry: $3,320
Stop: $3,270
Target: $3,400
Rationale: Favoring dip buys in the low $3,300s. Gold’s strong even with higher yields — likely a hedge play.
Invalidation: A move below $3,275 invalidates the breakout thesis.
Bonus Trade Ideas
🔸 EUR/USD
Current Price: 1.1750
Setup: Pulling back from YTD highs. RSI falling from overbought. Potential short-term double top.
Support/Resistance: Support at 1.170 and 1.160. Resistance at 1.182 and 1.200.
Trade Setup (Short):
Entry: 1.179
Stop: 1.1835
Target: 1.165
Rationale: I’m playing for a short-term USD bounce and EUR pullback after an extended rally.
Invalidation: A break above 1.1830 negates the short thesis.
🔸 Crude Oil (WTI)
Current Price: $68.00
Setup: Basing in a range between $63 and $72. Rebound off recent lows.
Support/Resistance: Support at $65 and $63. Resistance at $70 and $72.
Trade Setup (Long):
Entry: $66
Stop: $62
Target: $72
Rationale: I’m looking to buy near the bottom of the range for a swing higher. OPEC may intervene again if prices drop.
Invalidation: A close below $63 would break the base.
Sentiment & Macro Context
🔹 Fed Policy & Inflation
CPI is easing toward the Fed’s 2% goal, but policymakers are staying cautious. No rate cuts in sight yet — the Fed wants to avoid a premature pivot. I expect them to remain data-dependent, with markets pricing in a possible cut in late 2025.
🔹 Market Breadth & Rotation
This rally has been narrow. SPX and NDX are up YTD, but small caps (Russell 2000) are flat to negative. I’m watching for broader participation — a tech-only bull market can’t last forever.
🔹 Global Trade & Geopolitics
Trump’s proposed tariffs on Japan and South Korea could trigger retaliations. If this escalates, watch auto, chip, and industrial stocks. This story is far from over and could fuel risk-off days.
🔹 Yield Curve & Bonds
The 2Y-10Y yield curve is still inverted. The 10Y jumped to 4.38% — if it hits 4.5%, equities could face pressure. I respect bond signals — they often warn of shifts in sentiment.
🔹 Other Macro:
Earnings season is coming fast. This week is quiet, but big banks report next week. Positioning ahead of earnings could lead to stock-specific volatility. Tariffs, oil, and Fed minutes also on the radar.
One Macro Focus: Tariffs Return
This week’s surprise came from Washington: Trump’s team announced new 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea, set to begin August 1 unless those nations comply with U.S. trade demands. Smaller countries could face even higher tariffs.
Markets haven’t panicked yet, but this brings back memories of the 2018–2019 trade war. The risk is clear: if these allies respond with their own measures or if corporate supply chains are hit, equities could suffer.
I see this more as posturing for now — a negotiation tactic to push deals forward. But markets don’t love uncertainty, and even the fear of a prolonged conflict can spook sentiment. I’ll be watching closely for any escalation or walk-backs this week. If things calm, it could be a bullish catalyst. If not, defensive positioning may outperform in the near term.
Key Takeaways & Watch Zones
🔸 Where I might enter trades:
SPX: Buy near 6,200
NDX: Buy near 22,500
BTC: Breakout above $110K or dip to $104K
NVDA: Long above $160 or pullback to $154
Gold: Long in low $3,300s
EUR/USD: Short near 1.179
WTI: Long near $66
🔸 Levels that would change my view:
SPX below 6,140 = bearish shift
NDX below 22,000 = avoid tech
BTC below $100K = trend break
NVDA below $150 = invalidation
Gold below $3,275 = momentum gone
🔸 Strongest assets: Bitcoin, Nasdaq 100, Nvidia
🔸 Weakest: Small caps, oil (until proven otherwise)
🔸 Macro data that matters: Fed minutes (Wednesday), jobless claims (Thursday), any tariff updates
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter reflects my personal opinions only and is for educational purposes. I am not a financial advisor and nothing here is financial advice. I do not recommend what to buy or sell. I share what I’m watching, how I think, and where I see potential — but you are solely responsible for your own financial decisions. Always do your own research and consult a licensed professional.